CONCACAF WORLD CUP QUALIFIERS: MEXICO VS CANADA BY THE NUMBERS
Today, we will see what the numbers say about Mexico’s upcoming match against Canada.
THE ANALYSIS
These 2 teams have met 2 times in the past two years, both times in the Gold Cup.The last meeting ended with the following result : Mexico 2 – 1 Canada. Mexico has won 2 matches, and neither match ended in a draw. So far in these Qualifiers, Mexico is in very good home form winning their opening home match and averaging 3.00 PPG(Points Per Game), while Canada are performing well away, rescuing a draw in their visit to the USA, and averaging 1.00 PPG away. Previous matches between Mexico and Canada have averaged 3.5 goals while BTTS(Both Teams to Score) has happened 100% of the time.
GOALS SCORED VS GOALS CONCEDED
Canada is averaging 2 goals per match away this year, while El Tri is averaging 1.7 goals per game at home, in this stat, the advantage goes to Canada with an 18% advantage in scoring away. Keep in mind, Canada had to play additional rounds to get to this stage in the qualifiers, while Los Aztecas had an automatic berth to the finals.
The numbers give this advantage to Mexico by 75%. Los Aztecas have given up .4 goals per match at home, while Canada has given up .7 goals in away games. What this tells us is that this will be a highly contested match that may be decided by a single goal.
OFFENSE VS DEFENSE
Mexico has scored in 80% of their matches while Canada has had a clean sheet in 40% of their matches, on the other end, Canada comes into this match scoring in 90% of their matches, while El Tri is coming in with clean sheets in 60% of their matches. Again, both teams have a high percentage of scoring and not allowing goals.
THE DANGER ZONE
El Tri has gotten off to slow starts, which put them in danger of falling behind early. Canada has scored 20% of its goals between 0-15 minutes of games. The big danger however, comes after the 15 minute mark as Mexico concedes 25% of their goals between the 16-30 minutes of the game, 46-60 minutes, and 61-75 minutes. Canada tends to score 20% of their goals during the 16-30 and 46-60 minute windows. The danger zone for Mexico will be between the 61-75th minutes when they are vulnerable and Canada scores 25% of their goals.
Canada will field a fast and agile team against Mexico which may give El Tata’s backline fits as the back four are a little older and less mobile. All in all, I believe we are in for a great yet close match, I’m going with Mexico to win 2-1.
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