ETO Bets: Clasico Saturday Parlays
Clasico, or for you purists, Derby Saturday in Liga MX is here and with it comes my numbers analysis and parlays for both games.
As the saying goes, numbers don’t lie, so let’s see what the numbers say for this matchup. Atlas ranks 6th in OXG (Overall Expected Goals) with 1.48 while Chivas ranks 9th this season with 1.39. At home, however, Atlas’s XG goes up to 1.57, and away Chivas’s drops to 1.31. The numbers give Atlas a 40% chance of winning and Chivas only a 20% chance. Combined XG is 2.88 for this game, meaning at least two goals will be scored, closer to three.
What It Means
Based on the above information, the numbers say take Atlas@+115, Goals over 2.5 @+125, and a final score of Atlas 2-1 @+800. With this Parlay 3 and a $100 wager, you could see a $950 payout.
Clasico Regio
Now for the matchup up north. Even with their lackluster season, Tigres ranks 3rd in OXG at 1.56, while Monterrey ranks 6th at 1.55; almost identical. At home, Tigres XG rises to 1.6 while Monterrey drops to 1.36 XG. The numbers give UANL a 39% chance of winning and Rayados a 32% chance of winning., with a combined XG of 2.96.
What It Means
For this game, the numbers say take UANL @+145, again the over 2.5 @-109, and the same scoreline of 2-1 @+800. In this game I’m adding Funes Mori to score first and break Chupetes record @+800. With this Parlay 4 and the $100 wager, the payout would be $5100. Not too shabby.
While I mostly agree with the numbers, the eye test tells me Monterrey @+190 will win the game, with the same scoreline 2-1 @+900. Either way, hopefully these matchups live up to the hype.
This article is intended for entertainment purposes. We are not professional gamblers nor betting advisers. Please play responsibly. If you or anyone you know has a gambling addiction, please seek help by calling 1-800-522-4700.
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