LIGA MX REPECHAJE ODDS, MONEY LINES, AND PICKS
Liga MX has come to an end and unfortunately, I didn’t get my perfect parlay, on individual games however, my record was much better, especially with some upsets the oddsmakers didn’t see coming. Now the fun part of the tournament begins, El Repechaje.
Money Lines:
The Money Lines this week are as follows, according to Draftkings as of 5/5/2021.
The Odds:
Odds this week are as follows:
**Odds for Leon vs Toluca were unavailable at the time of writing.
The Expected Goals
This time around I’m going to introduce the XG or expected goals to the mix since we have fewer games to bet on. For these XG’s, a combination of shot accuracy, number of shots, attack dangerousness, and overall attack pressure are used to figure each team’s expected goals for Liga MX.
The Picks
Atlas vs UANL
As the Money Lines, Odds, and XG show this is the closest game to call. However, I am going with La Academia. Cocca’s team woke up in its final game scoring five goals on Necaxa, while Tigres’ limped into the repechaje with a 0-0 draw with Chivas. Although Atlas seems to play better at home, Tigres did beat Los Zorros in El Jalisco earlier this season 2-0. With that said I’ll still take Atlas@+140 in a low scoring game. With a $100 wager, payout would be $240.
Santos vs Queretaro
Santos is heavily favored in the odds, Money lines, and XG. Santos has been good at home averaging almost two expected goals per game, while Queretaro struggles away from La Corregidora. Gallos were able to beat Santos in Queretaro in their regular season matchup, but Santos at home is a different beast. Give me Santos@-139. A $100 wager on the Laguneros will pay out $172.
Leon vs Toluca
While no odds were found for this match, the money line has the reigning champs as sound favorites. Leon’s XG at home is just .27 greater than Toluca’s XG away, so this may be another close game. Leon won their matchup this season at home 2-1, I expect a similar goal line in this matchup. I like Leon@-162, again, a $100 wager on Los Panza’s Verdes will payout $162.
Pachuca Vs Guadalajara
In another game that can go either way, both teams have positive money lines, but the odds favor Los Tuzos. Again, Los Tuzos have a good XG at home, while Chivas’ visiting XG is low. They played to a 1-1 draw earlier this season in a game that Pachuca got tired of missing shots, both teams have the potential to score goals in loads, and I expect a high scoring game in Pachuca’s favor. Give me Los Tuzos@+115. A $100 wager on Pachuca will pay out $215.
Parlay
A four game parlay this week has the potential for a decent payout. If you take all home teams like I did, a $100 wager could payout $1437.78.
Good Luck and Good Betting!
This article is intended for entertainment purposes. We are not professional gamblers nor betting advisers. Please play responsibly. If you or anyone you know has a gambling addiction, please seek help by calling 1-800-522-4700.
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