Only in Liga MX: The Atlas Conundrum
Los Zorros are currently enjoying a great season by recent standards and currently stand in 6th place in the Liga MX Clausura 2021 and are on the verge of making the Liguilla for the first time in years. This should have Rojinegro fans, yours truly included, ecstatic at the progress the team has made under manager Diego Cocca. However, with Atlas nothing is ever that simple. While, “A Lo Atlas” , the team may qualify for the Liguilla, they could still be forced to forfeit their spot to the team that finishes in the 13th spot, with a very real possibility of that team being none other than their hated rivals, Chivas.
How is this possible?
As noted before, La Academia are currently in 6th place. However, they also currently reside in spot 17th of la porcentual; only .0303 points above Atletico San Luis.
Liga MX will not have a direct descenso this year, with the owners instead opting for a monetary fine-based system in an attempt to grow the league to 20 teams. With this system no team would actually lose its category, but the last three teams would have to pay fines for finishing in the last three spots. The fines are as follows:
16th Place- $50 millones de pesos (roughly 2.5 million US Dollars)
17th Place- $70 millones de pesos (roughly 3.5 million US Dollars)
18th Place- $120 millones de pesos (roughly 6 million US Dollars)
Six Point Games
This is where it gets interesting, since the cancellation of the Clausura 2020 due to the Covid-19 Pandemic, it was deemed that games that were not played at that point, would count double towards the Tabla Porcentual.
What this means is both Atlas and San Luis have a game that counts for double, or six points. For San Luis, it’s when it hosts Pachuca and for La Academia, when they visit Necaxa. In a perfect world, both teams would know their fate by the end of Thursday, April 29th, since that is the day slated for the San Luis vs Pachuca game to take place.
So with two games remaining and nine points on the table, what do both teams need?
Los Potosinos have it simpler….in theory. All they have to do is win out. Sounds simple enough, but nevertheless, that requires winning at Cruz Azul, who are on a great streak, and against Los Tuzos, who have recently shown signs of life.
Atlas, for their part must win out too, but also hope San Luis stumbles in one or both of their next two matchups. That means this week’s Clasico Tapatio, or Guadalajara Derby, takes on much more importance, as they’ll need to win against their archrival and then win away at Necaxa to put themselves in the best position possible.
This is the easiest route for both. That being said, we all know Liga MX teams never take the easiest route to ANYTHING! So our stats team has comprised the following to try and clear up what each team needs to avoid relegation(the $6 million fine):
- If San Luis make 0 points or 1 point, Atlas will not be last
- If San Luis make 2 points, Atlas needs only 1 point to avoid being last
Here’s where it gets complicated:
- If San Luis makes 3 but loses Jornada 17, Atlas needs only 1 point to avoid being last
- If San Luis makes 3 by winning only Jornada 17, then Atlas needs 4 points to avoid being last
- If San Luis makes 4 with a tie in Jornada 17, Atlas needs only 4 points to avoid being last
- If San Luis makes 4 by winning Jornada 17, then Atlas needs 6 points to avoid being last
- If San Luis make 6 points then there is no way Atlas can avoid being last
If you’re an Atlas fan like me, you are no stranger to uncertainty, but even this is a little much for me.
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